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We are living in times when the economies of the world are integrated through trade in goods and services and also through movements in financial capital. Countries are taking financial exposure in other countries through acquisition of foreign government debt, investors are investing in foreign country companies, foreign companies are expanding their production facilities abroad, mutual fund offers are made on foreign company equity paper, domestic [Read more...]
In the week that was, we wrote last that this week the market would overall improve. But so far the market has lost some ground. MACD shows that market may fall further and momentum has certainly weakened. The worrying part is that the Bollinger Band has narrowed and there may be a further decline on the cards. The not so impressive results of big corporates have let the market sentiment down. We have to wait for the results of the banking sector now for things to improve.
In terms of sectoral performance, clearly the FMCG sector (blue) has gone against the Sensex and registered continuous increase. The other sector that has done OK till today is the auto sector (pink). The fall in the banking index (green) and the IT index (red) have been in tandem with the Sensex.
India VIX is on the rise reflecting weakening of the bullish sentiment. Again the worry part is the narrowing of the Bollinger Band around the VIX implying that the VIX may suddenly rise causing the underlying to fall. The rest of the week appears to be volatile without much gain.
BOB, a public sector bank has Govt. Of India (GOI) share holding at 53.80%, BVPS at Rs. 413, EPS at Rs.83.70 and PE ratio of 7.9. Given that GOI has decided that its share holding will not fall below 51%, the ownership pattern has to be taken as data. Otherwise, the fundamentals are very strong. The PE ratio is close to that of SBI which is good. The 52 week high low I s Rs.1050 and Rs.546. The share is currently quoting at Rs. 965 (close). [Read more...]
This counter has seen some activity during the week and prices have increased from Rs.95 levels to Rs. 115 levels in a span of one month. It moved up after a double bottom at Rs.95 levels as shown in Figure 1. Current prices are close to the 100 DMA, but still lower than the 200 DMA. The 10 DMA has intersected the 30 DMA from below indicating that prices will rise during the coming week. Rs.115 was a support around May 2009 and the current prices have to exceed that level for prices to continue to rise. If this happens the next resistance will be at Rs.138 levels. [Read more...]
In our mid week review we had pointed out that there was a correction in the offing and the market has confirmed that. Since no new macroeconomic mishaps have been reported, technical indicators will work, and the market is poised for a correction even in the coming week. There is nothing wrong in it and should not be interpreted in a negative sense. It is a normal correction and the indicators as explained below suggest so. One needs to remember [Read more...]
In our week that was written last Saturday, we had expressed concern over the red candlestick on 1.4.2011 and low variation in the Sensex. We had stated that the week might start on a high, but some correction was due during the week. Data given in Figure 1 shows that this is a distinct possibility in the next two days. Percent retracement has been more than 62%, but it has not broken away. The two successive closes have been lower than the opens indicating loss in steam. However, momentum is very strong and the run may continue for some time. Profit booking now and before the elections is strongly recommended. The 10 DMA (pink) has broken away from the 30 DMA (green) and intersected the 100 DMA (blue) from below supporting continuation of the Bull Run for next few days.
The position with respect to the metal sector is not that homogenous. Although share prices of the companies shown in Figure 3 have benefitted from improved market sentiment, Sesa Goa has not performed that well. Movement in Sterlite has also been range bound. Tata Steel and Hindalco have performed relatively better.
The 4 IT majors shown in Figure 4 have performed well in recent times. The path of Wipro has been choppy as compared to the rest. The rise in price TCS has been smooth. For medium term gains, they are all good buys.
The pharma sector in India is quite large with a large number of well known companies, some of them being MNCs with operations overseas. The Indian pharma companies have coped well with the patent regime and turned out to be quite profitable. However, the pharma sector is said to be a defensive sector and does not go up or down with market [Read more...]
This week, the Sensex rose from a close of 18943 on 28 .3.2011 to a close of 19420 on 1.4.2011, a gain of around 477 points. The highs recorded on the two days were 19420 and 19562. As shown in Figure 1, the candlesticks showed a bullish trend, only to end with a red candle. This implies that on the very last day of the week, the close was lower than [Read more...]
The gold oil ratio is tracked to get a hang of the market sentiment. It is known that the price of gold moves in the opposite direction of the underlying market index, say NIFTY. As the NIFTY falls, investors rush to cover their position by shifting to gold. This raises the price of gold. The market index falling also has to do with some macroeconomic event which prompts central banks to opt for gold. The recent world economic crisis is one such example. Increase in the price of crude oil on the other hand is directly related to market sentiment. Basically markets move up when the economy/ies are buoyant. The buoyancy in economies is gets reflected in increase in overall [Read more...]
This week the Sensex gained momentum and inched closer to the 200 DMA as shown in Figure 1. It has touched the upper band of the Bollinger Band and the market was bullish. It is interesting that when adverse news hits the market, then the market reacts. However, after that, even if the adverse factor remains, the market seems to forget and resumes [Read more...]